The flip-flop of Congress in muddling with the Mandal formula to severely damage OBC quota at National level with an expectation of UP minorities votes might get boomeranged with Muslim voters not necessarily taking Congress side en-masse while other OBC groups clearly keeping off Congress in the ensuing UP state assembly election. The blame shall rest on the Congress strategists in UP including Salman Khursheed and Digvijay Singh, while it will be the dreams of Rahul Gandhi which will be shattered.
Congress took certain steps on splitting OBC reservation with 4.5% specially meant for minorities, i.e., the Muslims. The reservation for OBCs has always been a touchy issue for them and others too. It took several years for Central Government, largely ruled by Congress since independence, to let OBC reservation roll off after Mandal Commission, formed during Janta Party Government ( i.e. a non- Congress Government), and implemented by VP Singh headed Janta Dal Government ( also non-Congress), made OBC reservation in Central Government services a reality. It is a fact that even now the OBC reservation is not honestly implemented and the Congress dodging the promise of Caste census is a case in point. So, the talk of Reservation for Women etc. has always been considered by OBC groups as a way to pull down benefits to OBC in form of quotas. In such a circumstance when the Congress strategist decided to demarcate Muslim quota within the OBC reservation, OBC suspicion has gained credence on the conspiracy to snatch away the reservation benefits meant for it as a monolithic group.
What is again of concern to OBC groups is the go ahead for Jat inclusion in OBC category. Now with Congress strategist hopeful of reaping its benefits in UP election have overlooked the loss of the other OBC groups in UP due to this step. Secondly, let us predict what relevance shall these steps have on Minority votes swaying in Congress favour. It is evident that the Muslim votes across the nation, as well as in UP, is not a monolithic whole but divided between upper caste and pashmanda Muslims. The beneficiaries of the reservation would like to vote for Congress, but depending on the candidates and local situation. It is a common tendency among Muslim voters to vote for the Party in power, so BSP will also command a respectable percentage of Muslim votes. That the Samajwadi Party has been an old preference of Muslims in UP will also mean that the party will have its own share of Muslim votes. With Muslim votes in UP spreading across political spectrum during election, it will be naïve for Rahul Gandhi to believe his strategists promise of mass support of Muslim votes.
Though the Congress has given due percentage of tickets to OBC candidates, the real question is what will they go with to their voters, when there is a general feeling among the OBC voters that the Congress has duped them. The real miscalculation comes from Rahul’s own coterie which is dominated or rather has only Thakurs, headed by Digvijay Singh to advice him. Now, Digvijay Singh has been an utter flop in his home state Madhya Pradesh. His habitual ‘foot in the mouth syndrome’, everytime he opens his mouth will certainly be a liability for Congress and Rahul Gandhi will bear the burden. Digvijay Singh will do a Amar Singh on Rahul Gandhi, it can be concluded safely.
Rahul Gandhi had definitely gained by taking up the farmer’s issues when he was arrested, while he was staging a sit-in in Bhatta Parsaul village in support of farmers agitating against inadequate compensation for the acquisition of their land for a highway project. Mayawati had responded to Gandhi issue by saying that the decision was in the hands of the Centre… and had called the act “ his frustration by indulging in mean dramatics." Inspite of this the farmers are not a monolithic group and the Dalit farmer’s, we would like to believe at this point are largely with Mayawati. Schemes as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act cannot be effectifely translated as an election issue. A Centre for Media Studies report showed that the corruption has increased in UP. But with the advisors having put Rahul Gandhi onto logger heads with Anna Hazare, the impression gone out is that the Congress is the hardcore defenders of the corrupt. So, it would be difficult for the Congres to take mileage against incumbent Chief Minister Mayawati in a case about disproportionate assets, while Samajwadi party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav also has a case pending against him in a similar case. Interestingly out of a total of 403 MLAs, 143 face criminal charges. But this has no meaning for Congress especially when in neighbouring Bihar wives of Dons Anand Mohan and Pappu Yadav decorate Congress hierarchy.
While, the Brahmin votes are concerned, it would be difficult for Congress to woo them away from their traditional support to BJP and new found loyalty towards BSP. Therefore, with Congress finding it difficult to get on to its agelong winning social combination of Brahmins, Dalits and Minorities, the waning of the chance too woo the OBC or at least a section of it, makes power a distant dream for it in UP.
आंध्र प्रदेश उच्च न्यायालय ने ओं बी सी के २७% आरक्षण में अलग से अल्पसंख्यकों के लिए ४.५% अरक्षित करने के केन्द्रीय सरकार के कर्यालय ज्ञापन (OM) को खारिज कर दिया है. मंडल आयोग के अनुसार, शैक्षणिक और सामाजिक पिछड़े वर्ग में मुसलमान भी आते हैं, जिन्हें आरक्षण के लिए अनुमोदन किया गया है. जो ओं बी सी आरक्षण अभी भी ठीक तरीके से कार्यान्वित नहीं किया गया है, उसमें इस तरह के संशोधन लाना ही गलत था. जिस उत्तर प्रदेश चुनाव के मद्देनज़र यह किया गया, उसमें अन्य पिछड़े वर्ग और अल्पसंख्यकों ने मुक़म्मल तौर पर कांग्रेस को नकार दिया. उच्च न्यायालय ने अन्य पिछड़े वर्ग की संख्या पर भी टिप्पणी की है. अब सरकार जनगणना में जहाँ एक और पेड़- पौधे, टी वी, फ्रिज की भी गणना की है, ओं बी सी की गणना नहीं की है - शहरी विकास मंत्रालय और ग्रामीण विकास मंत्रालय के बीच यह जिम्मवारी अभी भी झूल रहा है. कारण स्पष्ट है- मंडल आयोग के १९३१ जनगणना के आधार पर पिछड़े वर्ग को ५४% मानने से भी कहीं अधिक अन्य पिछड़े वर्ग की संख्या है, और निश्चित तौर से २७% पर दिए गए आरक्षण से कही अधिक है ही.
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